. Long-range weather forecasting is not easy, and there are a lot of factors that impact seasonal climate. Also, we still seem to be transitioning out of La Nina, which may also have some impact. 10 day. As far as ENSO goes the one difference this winter seems to be the east tropical Pacific was not as cold as the prior years when the SSTs in the Nino 1.2 at times were from -2 to -.2.5 while the western tropical pacific was near neutral. Glasgow and Belfast are predicted to reach 16C, although this could be followed by a period of more typical October weather. Extended Winter Forecast for 2022-2023 - Farmers' Almanac In the East, the almanac predicts above-average snowfall for a vast area, from North Carolina to central New England to the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as well as the Great Plains. We are currently in a La Nina phase, entering its third and final year, likely being replaced by a warm phase for 2023/2024. Can MJO interfere with ENSO climate? Below we have the latest surface analysis of the tropical Pacific Ocean. Along the Interstate 95 corridor, which often is the rain-snow line for major storms, the Farmers Almanac suggests more snow than rain. More early Spring snowfall is also expected over the northwestern United States and the southern half of Canada while the La Nina influence slowly lets go. Get The 7 DMV newsletter in your inbox every weekday morning. The February snowfall forecast indicates continued potential over the northern parts of Europe. Between 9 and 23 November there could be an increasing chance of settled weather from mid-month, bringing a potential for colder, drier weather especially for the north and west, it said. I appreciate your support! Thanks for your comment, Craig. Below we have an Official NOAA CPC probability forecast graphic, which shows the long-range forecast of the central ENSO region. Thanks Nat for this cogent and readable discussion! Story of winter 2022/23. NOAA's 2022-2023 Winter Forecast | OpenSnow I realize that this winter has been more eventful in other parts of the country, notably in the western U.S., where torrential rains and heavy mountain snows occurred in December and January. Alex Burkill, senior meteorologist at the Met Office, said: Its likely to be the warmest spell weve had at the end of October since 2014, when we had the warmest Halloween on record. Based on the Farmer's Almanac winter 2022-2023 predictions for the upcoming chilly season, the report shows that . We have a proven track record of top and bottom line growth. That can be interpreted as a potential route of winter cold air outbreaks down from the Midwest to the south, creating occasional snow events. That storminess is not expected to slow in the eastern half of the country, with the almanac suggesting snowy conditions into the Northeast. We're just a few days into meteorological winter and something rather interesting is stirring. NOAAs Precipitation Reconstruction over Land (PREC/L). The greatest chances for drier-than-average conditions are forecast in portions of California, the Southwest, the southern Rockies, southern Plains, Gulf Coast and much of the Southeast. In mid-January, the Farmers Almanac says, temperatures could drop as low as 40 degrees below zero in parts of the region. The format of this forecast is simple. (Head to footnote 6 for all the gory math details.). To determine this signal, I first calculated the average of the December-January Southwest U.S. precipitation across all 30 ensemble members for each La Nia. During the years of 2022, 2023, and 2024, an event like no other struck the ENTIRE United States, unleashing total chaos upon the country. (Please understand we are not monitoring the blog 24/7.). Farmers' Almanac predicts Michigan winter with plenty of snow, cold The figure above shows the sea surface temperature differences between the high- and low-precipitation groups in the SPEAR simulations. Maximum temperature 7C. The 2022-2023 winter season may have record-breaking cold temperatures of 40 degrees below zero in some places in the US! The next image below shows the change in the snow depth forecast between the latest model data and the previous model run. U.S. Winter Outlook: Drier, warmer South, wetter North with return of That means that this post is definitely not the last word on this topic! Climate Prediction Center - Seasonal Outlook - National Oceanic and We will do a monthly breakdown, as there are a lot of details in the monthly forecast that the whole seasonal average does not show. Finally, do you have any comment on the unusual persistent La Nina-like SOI and multivariate ENSO index (MEI) for the 2020-23 La Nina despite occasional neutral Nino34 SSTA lapses? Of course, as with all these predictions, they are just indications of the long-range patterns. This early winter, the Southwest had 65% more precipitation than normal according to this precipitation dataset, which is the second highest La Nia total since 1951. Farmer's Almanac Winter 2021-2022 Predictions by Region - Martha Stewart Because the observed record is too short to tease out the relationships we seek with sufficient precision, we rely on climate models to sharpen the signal relative to the noise of random weather variability. Farmers' Almanac Releases an Extreme Winter Forecast for 2022-23 Not sure how much that was a factor. Comments must be on-topic; free of profanity, name-calling, or ad-hominem attacks; and cannot repeat misinformation about climate that has been widely debunked by authoritative sources. Thanks, Tom. From the abundance of acorns in the fall to the bushiness of squirrel tails, there are many fanciful forecasting techniques have been used over the years as a means to glean a glimpse of what the weather will be like in the upcoming winter. 16 day. which became the state's newest city in January 2022, . Difference in DecemberJanuary precipitation anomalies (percent of the 1991-2020 climatology) between the wettest 20% and driest 20% of Southwestern U.S. La Nia outcomes simulated by the GFDL SPEAR climate model. Finally, the persistently positive SOI and MEI is an interesting observation. Everything I read details how little we understand and have modeled such an occurrence- a gigantic and long-lasting (it will take years for the extra water vapor to dissipate) change to something that we think of (and model) as utterly constant and stable. The Farmers Almanac says conditions in the Upper Midwest will be glacial, and it suggests there will be plenty of snow and chilly conditions for winter lovers to enjoy including the potential for a White Christmas. Although it's several months away yet, a typical La Nia winter in the U.S. brings cold and snow to the Northwest and unusually dry conditions to most of the southern tier of the U.S., according. Regarding the "warm blobs" you mention, most studies suggest that extratropical sea surface temperature anomalies generally do not have a major impact on the large-scale atmospheric circulation, so I suspect that the two warm blobs you mention did not have a major impact on Southwest U.S. precipitation. To better understand the ENSO changes, we produced a video showing the La Nina anomalies from Summer into Fall. A blog about monitoring and forecasting El Nio, La Nia, and their impacts. We always focus on trends and probabilities, but still, variation is key. The Met Office has warned that snow may appear across the north and west of the UK as early as 9 November. This will be followed by the Quadrantid Meteor Shower . What its also doing though, is helping develop the kind of south-westerly airflow which is spinning in some of these periods of wet and windy weather, but also the warmer kind of continental air over the UK much more than average for the time of year.. AccuWeather long-range forecasters are predicting that 40 to 50 inches will accumulate in the city, around the average snowfall amount of 49.2 inches. Plenty of sunshine is expected across the south over the next few days, matching temperatures in St Tropez in southern France. Last winter, Boston finished the season with. How unusual were these Southwestern wet conditions in the first two-thirds of a La Nia winter? Winter Forecast for Southwest Michigan for 2022/2023 Impactful Winter Weather On the Way A storm system will move into Lower Michigan for Friday, bringing primarily snow but some light freezing rain could mix in across the far south. That's a good point! Official websites use .gov That part of the country also is expected to receive less snow than normal. While their predictions won't delight those who hate changeexpect back-and-forth weather patterns across the countryfor the most part, winter won't be harsh. The new forecast, issued Aug.18, 2022, is pegged on the thought that La Nia is expected to continue through this winter before fading to near normal water temperatures next spring. Here is what the Met Office is predicting for the coming weeks. This would likely bring a risk of chilly nights with mist, frost and fog in places, with some snow possible in any showers in northern and western areas, especially over high ground.. As that post notes, it's critical to understand the source of the mismatch models and observations (natural variability or model error or both? Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc. (SWX) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript Widespread extreme drought continues to persist across much of the West, the Great Basin, and the central-to-southern Great Plains. The snowfall forecast focuses the most snowfall on the Midwest. Q4 2022 Southwest Gas Holdings Inc Earnings Call That total is deceptive as many areas in Tucson area had 6-7 inches today, Meanwhile Washington DC and Philadelphia have had less than 1/2 inch snow this winter, Submitted by Craig T on Thu, 03/02/2023 - 16:22. With the observations, I did try setting a higher La Nina amplitude threshold (DJF Nino 3.4 SST anomaly amplitude greater than 1 deg. View the weather with our interactive map. This latest forecast cycle interestingly shows more snowfall over the western United States and also the Midwest. These are blog posts, not official agency communications; if you quote from these posts or from the comments section, you should attribute the quoted material to the blogger or commenter, not to NOAA, CPC, or Climate.gov. It was developed by the United Kingdom Met Office, which is where the initials UKMO come from. I am wondering if there is a possibility that the triple-dip La Nina event from 2020 could create some kinds of conditions that make atmospheric rivers more active, resulting in the occurrence of torrential rains over the western United States. Although the official winter forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will not come out for another few weeks, the agencys Climate Prediction Center does issue official outlooks for temperature and precipitation up to 13 months in advance. Today's Tucson weather forecast: March 1 We have seen a stronger-than-normal jet stream throughout the Southwest, which has brought the wetter conditions this winter. Flannel, hot chocolate and snowshoes are in the winter forecast from the Farmers' Almanac, which is predicting a shivery 2022-2023 winter for most of the United States. December-February: January-March: January snowfall forecast shows a similar pattern, with more snowfall over much of southern Canada and the northern half of the United States. It's likely to be drier further north apart from occasional wintry showers, while rain and strong winds are more likely in the south, with a lower risk of snow at times. Minimum temperature 2C. Did La Nia drench the Southwest United States in early winter 2022/23 The million-dollar question for seasonal forecasters and climate scientists alike is whether this unusually wet Southwestern U.S. could have been anticipated more than a few weeks in advance. 4th grader reports Friday's weather forecast 1 day ago. Thank you for your question! Winter 2022/2023 Snowfall Predictions: Final Snow Forecast for the . The image below shows the circulation pattern of a cold phase and its ocean-atmosphere connection. Good analysis! Places where precipitation was less than 100 percent of the 1991-2020 average are brown; places where precipitation was 300 percent or more than average are blue-green. Wetter-than-average conditions are most likely in western Alaska, the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Even modest variations could tip the scale toward wetter or drier conditions in a particular winter. Rain, heavy at times, will sweep quickly north-eastwards across most parts. Winter Forecast 2022-2023, Meteorologist Chris Tomer 5 months ago Winter Camping in Snowfall - Forester Tree Hug Tarp Setup - Spit Roast - Bushcraft Bowsaw Swedwoods 240K views 3 weeks ago. Submitted by Nathaniel.Johnson on Thu, 03/02/2023 - 08:32, Tucson Intl Airport had 1.0 inches of snow today (March 2) bringing season total to 1.5 inches. Winter Outlook 2022-23 Has Colder Risks For North, East Below normal temperatures are favored from the Pacific Northwest eastward to the western Great Lakes and the Alaska Panhandle. There certainly other teleconnection patterns that influence western U.S. precipitation, but most of them have little to no connection with sea surface temperatures. Turning wet and windy from the west on Monday. We either require the cold air to meet a rain-bearing weather front and turn it into snow, or for the cold air to pick up enough moisture from its short journey across the North Sea, to form showers.. . So far, the storm season in the UK has been decidedly quiet, with not a single named storm featuring so far. The December snow depth forecast shows less snow cover over most of the United States and Canada. The UK is set to be hotter than Greece over the weekend as the countrycontinues to experience unusually warm temperatures this October. A Tale Of Two Winters Across The US, According To Old Farmer's Almanac The Old. Thank you, Clara, for the kind words! Can you trust The Old Farmers' Almanac's winter weather predictions? Typically, the first influence of these ocean anomalies can be seen in the jet stream patterns changing. Thanks for doing those simulations, and for sharing the results here. This way, we can use these anomalies as an indicator to better understand the current state of the global climate system and its seasonal development. Long-Range Weather Forecast for Desert Southwest - Almanac TUCSON, Ariz. (KGUN) March marches in like a lion! Here is the forecast for the coming days. From the United States to Canada and over Europe, we will look at the latest Full snowfall forecasts and trends, extending the view into early Spring. Ohio Winter Forecast 2022-2023 - Earth Development Jamstec used to have a lot of information on their website but much of it seems to have left after a reported breach a couple of years back. AccuWeather forecasters are predicting a more active severe thunderstorm season in the southeastern states during the winter months because of warmer-than-normal ocean temperatures. The lowest temperatures are expected in the Ohio Valley into the Upper Midwest, which are forecast to be 1 to 3 degrees below normal. For the first three months when winterlike conditions begin in earnest November, December and January abnormal cold is not expected anywhere in the country. Such projections reflect typical conditions that develop during La Nia events, which are associated with an episodic cooling of ocean waters in the tropical Pacific. However, December may put the brakes on this, with a strong signal for this month to be much cooler than average. I dont want to be guilty of self-promotion, but I recently published a. While it is still several weeks until the official start of winter on Dec. 21, several organizations are already unveiling their nationwide Winter 2022-2023 forecasts. 1 Quote; Link to comment . A larger deficit can be seen over northern Europe and the Alps. This year, La Nia is forecast to prevail for a third straight winter. Submitted by Nathaniel.Johnson on Wed, 03/01/2023 - 12:10, In reply to Arctic amplification (?) Sign up for the Climate Coach newsletter, in your inbox every Tuesday and Thursday. In the SPEAR simulations, I examined the relationship between the ensemble mean Southwest U.S. precipitation anomalies and the La Nina SST anomalies. The data used to produce these graphics is the latest available at the present time, from mid-November. This video and related map images can also be accessed online at www.climate.gov/winter2022-23. We will go over the Precipitation, Temperatures, Snowfall, and our Exciting Overall Forecast! Three events went neutral in the third year, and three phases shifted into an El Nino in the third season. Submitted by Nathaniel.Johnson on Wed, 03/01/2023 - 19:55, In reply to Atmospheric rivers by Jiwon Kim. But take note of the trough of equal temperatures probability extending down low into the south-central states. However, the Met Office has issued a yellow warning for parts of Scotland, including Highlands, Eilean Siar and Strathclyde, and Northern Ireland on Friday, meaning residents should expect heavy rain and some flooding of a few homes and businesses. Those rainstorms may cause flooding in the Ohio Valley and along the Mississippi River, AccuWeather says. Oct. 13 2022, Published 3:08 p.m. But otherwise, the rest of the continent shows less snowfall than normal for this month. Even the wettest December-January event before this year, 1955/56, was drier-than-average in February-March, demonstrating that a wet early winter doesnt necessarily mean a wet late winter. This 2021-2022 U.S. Winter Outlook map for precipitation shows wetter-than-average conditions are . I also have noted that the tropical atmosphere has been more persistently La Nina-like than the Nino region sea surface temperatures in recent months. But looking at the March snow forecast image below, we can see most of Europe having a lower-than-normal end to the snow season. This area is still feeling theeffects of the past 3 VERY Dry Winters. This is can be seen in the NOAAs latest official Winter 2022/2023 temperature forecast for the United States. The image below shows the average pressure pattern during the La Nina winters in the past 40 years. Starting with the seasonal average for Europe, we can see another weak snowfall forecast similar to the ECMWF. South West England weather - Met Office A fast moving winter storm will bring a swath of heavy snowfall from North Dakota into northern Missouri beginning this evening. Minnesota winter 2022-23 report card: Wettest on record and mild Out West, even if temperatures are mild, the predicted above-average precipitation can help to ease the regions drought. The main takeaway for much of the country: Expect snow, rain and mush, and a lot of it,. It added its 10-day or longer forecasts are only . Their study states these types of events result in a different atmospheric response. An official website of the United States government.