We have so many units that need to be repaired and we cant get the parts. There are 22 counties in the US that managed to vote for the winning party in every single election from 1988 to 2016. They also found that high-scoring counties exhibit a geographic trend. Ive heard all the whiners complaining about what hes doing, but I havent really seen anything hardcore. Chamberlin, who has worked for the regional chain for 17 years, estimates he has saved about $2,000 in gas over the past year. The way the system works now, if you get in as a young person on something small, its very hard to get out. And then theres Vigo Countyin Indianathe quintessential bellwether that has correctly picked the winner in all but two elections since 1888. Two states have announced recounts. Your email address will not be published. Farming also is huge here. List of election bellwether counties in the United States In 2020, all but one of the bellwethers picked President Donald Trump by a margin of some 16 points on average. Will Ohios Wood County Continue to Be a Reliable Bellwether Indicator? A diverse group of residents, many were surprised to wake up the morning of Nov. 4, 2020, to see that Joe Biden overtook Trumps leads in numerous battleground states from the night beforesuch as in Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Once the two 2016 presidential candidates were locked in, she knew she couldnt vote for Clinton, while Trumps promise to drain the swamp piqued her interest. Today, there are also 14,183 independents registered to vote and five libertarians, according to the Ottawa Countys Board of Elections website. 'I Should Start Voting'. Soon, he lost his union membership because he had no money to pay the dues. She said she almost never votes, but this year decided to vote for President Donald Trump. Bellwethers arent a crystal balltheir streak was expected to end sooner or later. He said hes had trouble getting a job for much of his life, because he was found guilty of a felony drug offense as a young man. These 3 Virginia Congressional Races Could Be 'National Bellwether For Brendon, another resident of Riley who declined to disclose his last name, his spiritual belief will lead him not to vote at all this year. And to force somebody to do it, it just makes even less sense, because this country is supposed to be free.. . Theres significant variability among them though. In 2020, Vigo went for Trump by nearly 15 points, roughly the same as in 2016. But according to the. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. Federalist: 5 Ways Biden Unusually Outperformed Norms Although longtime county residents say that Wood County is in pretty good shape overallas there has been some recent industrial development on its north sideit also has been affected by national issues such as inflation, the price of gasoline, supply chain issues, and workforce shortages. I believe in a time cycle. Its just not that great, Paul said. And then you have the Biden folks that are like, This is just nutty,' he said. We need to address the economy and safety and security, Hawker said. The last time Ottawa County deviated from its winning choice for president was in 1960 when the county supported Republican Richard Nixon, but Democrat John F. Kennedy won. We have become so divided. Our infrastructure is in bad shape.. Our model also links this decline to increases in polarization. In 2016, nearly 100 million eligible Americans didnt vote. "Statistically Impossible" That 19 of 20 Bellweather Counties All Voted He said Vigo County is fairly evenly divided between those who identify as Republicans and those who identify as Democrats. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). A lot of people think things are. Supreme Court nominees also matter a lot to Myers in this election. He doesnt seem like a really bad guy. First, we can readily imagine that some counties demographically/politically mirror the nation, and thus monitoring this small set of counties closely would tell us with high predictive reliability what will happen nationally. In a 2020 article, Daniel Zimny-Schmitt and Michael Harris look for bellwether counties in the period 1980-2016 and identify nineteen such. The sentiments of those arriving at or leaving the Kroger grocery down the street in Port Clinton echoed those at the gas station. Tammy said that with the lakefront area being a popular spot for fishing and tourists, the price of gas always has been higher than average. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. County Legislature Approves Revised $75 Million ARPA Spending Plan Ottawa County in Ohio has been on target every four years since 1964, and Bexar County in Texas (San Antonio) has had only one miss since 1928 (preferring the Democrat Hubert Humphrey in 1968). Thus, for some sequences of elections there are indeed, bellwether counties. The City Center festival continued with Kyiv City Ballet, a Christopher Wheeldon duet and a daring work for Dayton Contemporary Dance Company. His morals also include being honest, and he is bothered by what he sees as lies coming from both candidates. When you were in the union, they always wanted you to vote for Democrats, Paul said. The counties tend to be clustered in the Midwest and the Northeast, with only four of the counties not falling into one of those regions, they said. The Epoch Times - YouTube Haotian Chen is a Ph.D. student in political science at the University of California, Irvine. In addition to Florida Gov. "If. She can be reached at cara.ding@epochtimes.com, Biden Extends National Emergency Due to Extraordinary Threat of Russian Actions in Ukraine, Suburban Wisconsin Voters Divided on Presidential Race. And the media is just taking it overboard., Shepherd said of Trump: I do know that he is not a selfish person. Since its founding in 1853 it has only got 13 out of the 37 extant elections right. Hamilton sees value in both parties, he said, but he considers himself Democratic-leaning. We need to be safe, and I dont think we are right now.. He thinks the current criminal justice system imprisons too many people. Im not even sure what direction were going.. It also has a failing manufacturing sector with once Democratic-leaning union workers who may have found Trumps America First message appealing in recent years. In 2020, all but one of the bellwethers picked President Donald Trump by a margin of some 16 points on average. The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about 4 points on average. Thats about 43 percent of the eligible voters in the country, according to a study of nonvoters overseen by professors at Tufts University and Stony Brook University. US election results: Why the most accurate bellwether counties were The cost of my prescriptions has gone through the roof. He also intends to vote in personto ensure his vote is counted that day, although he used a mail-in ballot to vote in the primary. Only 1 of 17 bellwether counties went for Biden this year! (Charlotte Cuthbertson/The Epoch Times). bellwether - Political Dictionary Tom Wolf overstepped his boundaries during the pandemic. We just couldnt believe that Trump had lost.. There isnt anything I can do to change it or to make it better by voting.. The bellwether scores map highlights the fact that many states have a good bellwether county or two, even if they did not make the list of the 19 counties which have always voted for the winning candidate, they said. We were as far down to five cooks last year. Thus it would appear that bellwether. Robert Ellithorpe, an 84-year-old great grandfather, and Navy aviation veteran said he believed the 2020 presidential election was legitimate and Biden received 80 million votes. Its been a long time since we were fully staffed with 35 cooks. Data de l'entrada martin county clerk of court jobs; whats wrong secretary kim dramawiki . To find out more about cookies and change your preferences, visit our, looked to ten allegedly bellwether counties, The Russia-Ukraine War: a challenge to international order, Global Energy Politics and Cost of Living Crisis, The New Normal: a dual track approach to health strategy and policy, Inside the Deal: how the EU got Brexit done. Political scientists have a term for counties or states that anticipate how the rest of the country will votebellwethers. I think a lot of us are fighting against socialism. He likes that Trump upholds law and order amid the social unrest. An Emerson poll conducted shortly before Election Day was completely off, showing Trump and Biden neck and neck. A small-business owner, who didnt want to be identified, said hes voting for Biden. The Fall of the Bellwether Counties - Election Fraud at a Glance RIDGWAY, Pa.Tucked into a wooded valley in north-central Pennsylvania is the bellwether borough of Ridgway, the county seat . Also, spare a thought for Webster County in Georgia. Jason Armagost of Mudbeards Bikes and Boards has chosen to stay out of politics and doesnt vote. Workforce shortages are mostly everywhere, he said. Being poor, I do believe that we need a stable safety net for people. However, in the 2020 primary election, more Democrats had turned out to vote3,413 to 2,598 Republicans, usually an indicator of how the presidential election is going to go, party officials believe. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). Missouri fits this definition, as do six counties that have matched the national vote. She said her husband will vote for Trump, too. We need to finish putting up the wall that Trump started. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). But what would be striking is for it to end so radically. I dont think you should take that away from me.. This claim is basically absurd. Even wearing a mask, youre still not certain. The issues most important to Fannin include the economy, border security, and the virus. Its difficult to have a conversation nowadays without really stirring up emotions, and thats probably my main issue, Hamilton told The Epoch Times as he stood in downtown Terre Haute. The unequal geographic distribution is a somewhat curious phenomenon of bellwether counties. John Hawker, a 74-year-old Port Clinton resident who grew up in Toledo, was sitting at the end of the bar and also weighed in on the state of affairs. It is as if the devastating rebuttals by Tufte in Data Analysis for Politics and Policy or the equally devastating review of the evidence in David A. Hopkins 2017 book Red Fighting Blue never happened. Hes an elitist and just couldnt keep his mouth shut. One such claim is that Trumps victories in 2020 in the vast bulk of the counties that had previously been labeled as bellwethers proved that Trump really won the election and was denied the victory because of fraud. Im looking at both sides of it. We believe that there are two main reasons. The county, which includes spring and summer destinations such as Kelleys Island, Marblehead, and Put-in-Bay, currently is in hibernation. Biden Extends National Emergency Due to Extraordinary Threat of Russian Actions in Ukraine, Tulsi Gabbard Says Election Fraud a 'Serious Threat,' Announces Bill Targeting Ballot Harvesting. Bellwethers must make correct predictions regardless of which party wins election, but polarization makes it increasingly likely that counties will split into ones that vote regularly for a Republican or for a Democratic presidential nominee. She only voted once, at the urging of her husband, when they got married about 30 years ago. A recent history of presidential election bellwether counties - Ballotpedia The majority of rural America are our hard-working, blue-collar workers. Both Hidalgo and Valencia County, New Mexico, are close to 60 percent Hispanic. He is his own worst enemy.. In 2020 the expansion also began generating $898,000 a year for the next 15 years for Lake Local Schools. We want to get people off of welfare, we need to get people back into working again, being self sustainable. Charlotte Cuthbertson is a senior reporter with The Epoch Times who primarily covers border security and the opioid crisis. They write that the electoral record shows that not only are bellwether counties poor predictors of who will win a presidential election, rising polarization means that their ability to predict long streaks of elections has been in decline over the last two decades. Westmoreland is the only one in the South; Clallam is the only county on the West Coast, and Hidalgo and Valencia are the only counties in the Mountain West. He has since assessed each candidate on their moral stances, he said, rather than by party affiliation. Previously, he covered national topics including politics, economy, education, and law enforcement. One major planned project in Wood County pulled outPeloton, an exercise bike and interactive exercise equipment manufacturer. Its too big. Teresa Shepherd, a middle-aged woman living in Riley, just southeast of Terre Haute, has never cared much about voting. bellwether counties epoch times I think we needed somebody like him.. Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020 - The Epoch Times MORE evidence: It looks like Biden outperformed only in counties that (Michael Sakal/The Epoch Times). HOW THE SPECTER OF COMMUNISM IS RULING OUR WORLD. Bellwether County Portends a Red Pennsylvania in 2020 Election I find that hard to believe. If I look back on my life, there is a swing toward the right, and then it swings back toward the left. We could also simply update our list of bellwether counties to reflect the new results. Bobby Tisdell stands in front of his home in West Terre Haute, Vigo County, Ind., on Oct. 20, 2020. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. Their fear is real, mine is. Only one, Clallam County in Washington, went for former Vice President Joe Biden and only by about a 3 point margin. The candidate who curiously outperformed the bellwether counties? Trump We know that President Donald Trump won 18 of the 19 historic bellwether counties those that have regularly predicted the outcome of presidential contests. Every time you pass a law, the government becomes more oppressive. There is another bellwether list of 58 counties that has correctly picked each president since 2000; Trump won 51 of them by an average margin of nearly 15 points. The Fall of the Bellwether Counties This article is part of a series on Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis. Why is belief in the existence of bellwether states and counties (especially the latter) so strong? This includes personalizing content and advertising. We need creative leadership, Miller said. When gas went up that time, our sales went down to zero, Zulch said. Here, a farming operation is pictured in Bowling Green, Ohio in Wood County, a bellwether county in America's Heartland experiencing problems such as inflation and high gas prices, affecting every day life. . It was easy. He said he finds it hard to believe Bidens claim that he never talked to his son Hunter Biden about his deals in Ukraine and China. Part of his route is driving up to Detroit and Flint, Michigan, every day. The researchers also mapped all U.S. counties (over 3,000) by their bellwether scoretheir record of voting for the overall winner in each of the previous 10 presidential electionsgiving progressively larger weight to more recent elections. Logistically, its a disaster. While these are the top bellwether counties, there are many more that are considered to be predictive. Taking the pulse in Vigo County, Indiana, which has voted for the presidential winner in all but two elections over the past century, Cara is an Orange County, New York-based Epoch Times reporter. Articles after the 2020 election examining the predictive power of previous bellwethers are found in other sources, including the Wall Street Journal and the Epoch Times. She also said that many people who come into the pub are outspoken about the current state of affairs in the United States, especially on Saturdays when the crowds are larger. Washington County, Maine - one miss since 1972 (in 1976), perfect since 1980. . Of the 19 bellwether counties that have consistently voted for the presidential winner since 1980, all but one chose Trump, the Journal found, PJ Media reported. The county, located along the Illinois border, has a mix of rural and urban demographics. 2020: Trump - 54.12%, Biden - 45.20%. Finally, numerical bellwether scores for all 3142 counties in the US were computed based upon the number of . Its gone, Jacobs said. In particular, recent research which identified nineteen bellwether counties found that they "tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole." The economy and good-paying jobs always have been an issue up here.. Overall, the county is in good shape, and has a lot going for it.. This year, the local courthouse in Ridgway has been bustling with new voter registrations and party affiliation changes. The ongoing coronavirus restrictions seem to be nudging people to the right, but six weeks out from the election and with the October surprises still to come, the Keystone State could be the clincher for either candidate. Terry Titchner, 70, said hes voting for Biden because he doesnt trust Trump. She thinks economic distress from COVID-19 will fuel more unrest. Armagost was lucky during the shutdowns, as bike shop repairs and maintenance were considered essential and he remained in business. Just two have populations in excess of 100,000, the authors said. In both of the missteps, the residents wrongly picked the losing Democrat: Williams Jennings Bryan over President William Taft in 1908 and Adlai Stevenson over President Dwight Eisenhower in 1952. That is, until this year. In politics, a "bellwether" refers to a geographic area whose political beliefs and voting preferences reflect that of a wider area. Biden Won Despite Losing Most Bellwether Counties Youre not getting anybody perfect. Given the global context of Russias invasion of Ukraine, they believe higher gas prices and inflation is coming, and theyre not happy about it. This includes personalizing content and advertising. Nestled along Lake Erie in the northwest of the state between Toledo and Cleveland, the area has a population of 40,364, according to the 2020 Census. Opinion | The 10 Bellwether Counties That Show How - The New York Times I have not seen any division like this [before]., I believe that is because of our current president, so my main issue is that he does not stay president.. If riots break out in our area and we dont have firearms, how are we going to protect our family and ourselves?. Mike DeWine is running for reelection and facing candidates Joe Blystone, Jim Renacci, and Ron Hood in the primary. They were particularly representative in 2012, when the average 1980-to-2016 bellwether county was just 0.8 points more Democratic than the nation. Perhaps that is why they are a true bellwether county, not fully committing to one political party over the other. dionisia pacquiao net worth; leer un archivo excel en sql server; alix pasquet iii relationship; american gold eagle type 1 vs type 2; sniper spotting scope; When there was, we were making money pulling people out of ditches.. Thats probably the biggest fear right now when I talk to people. Fitch said he finds the president to be arrogant and obnoxious at times, but I wasnt voting for a fishing buddy, I was looking for somebody to stir up Washington, D.C., Hes getting stuff done in an unconventional way, Fitch said. Jacobs believes theres more enthusiasm for Trump now than before the 2016 electionin Elk County and around the country. I mean the whole world ought to be mad at China, we should all be going to war against them. 16 of 17 Bellwether Counties Went for Trump - Stillness in the Storm But as for America, I feel he would do the best job.. Weve always had a mix of voters, Baumgardner added. Things have been bad for so long, they dont care.. Washington state's Clallam County was the outlier, backing Joe Biden in a state he won by more than 19 points. If you own a business and you have a bad summer where it rains every weekend, youre out of luck.. Westmoreland County, Virginia, is almost one third black. But, he said, most mainstream politicians dont represent rural America, and issues such as boys that identify as girls and then compete in girls high school sports just smack of stupid., The economy and taxes are important issues to him, but the question he asks of the candidate is, Does this person care about my family?. The median household annual income is approximately $20,000 less in the county than it is nationally. State residents are awaiting a ruling from the Ohio Supreme Court about whether it will approve the newly proposed congressional map that the Ohio Redistricting Commission submitted to the high court earlier this month. Now, being more than $3 a gallon, people are beginning to notice it more as its putting a pinch on their wallets. Trump is challenging the results in several states, alleging fraud, voter suppression, and illegal restrictions on Republican poll watchers. They missed in 1908 and 1952, but otherwise, the county has well earned its reputation as a bellwether. Jim Hoft is the founder and editor of The Gateway Pundit, one of the top conservative news outlets in America. Theyve been dubbed bellwether counties and until this year, no president since at least Ronald Reagan has missed even one. Timeline: Rep. Jim Jordan, a Systematic Disinformation Campaign, and What you need to know, summarized in one email. They need to take care of the older people here. Shepherd said being able to bear arms is of particular importance now and she fears Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden would restrict that right. About The Author. But theyre happy with that and theyre proud of what they created. The county, located along the Illinois border, has a mix of rural and urban demographics. I think he is more for giving to the people.. He said hes concerned but hopeful for the future. The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about 4 points on average. From 1980 to 2012, for instance, these bellwether counties consistently voted within a few points of the national popular vote. Hes pleased with the last twoBrett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrettby Trump. That doesnt make sense to me, Tisdell said. What are bellwether counties and can they actually predict elections We need election reform.. There Are No Bellwether Counties | HuffPost Latest News In Terre Haute, 52-year-old Scott Hamilton said the main issue for him in this election is how divided the nation is; he said Trump is mostly to blame. Note: This article gives the views of the author, and not the position of USAPP American Politics and Policy, nor the London School of Economics. Even Heidi Mackey, the clerk inside the station who said she hasnt voted since 2018, said shell likely vote in the May 3 primary. Thats a highly Democratic area, but people see whats going on and theyre not happy, Sam said. By Cara Ding. What a Bellwether County Is Saying About 2020 Election - The Epoch Times Half the people are just wearing rags on top of their face. MORE PROOF OF FRAUD: 16 of 17 Bellwether Counties Went for Trump HAS The legislature of Orange County, New York, unanimously passed a revised spending plan of close to $75 million in federal COVID-19 . This belief in the efficacy of small numbers is probably strengthened by the fact that a random sample of only 2,000 or so voters is considered by statisticians large enough to predict election results in an electorate of well 140 million or so at least if the sample is truly random and the respondents are not lying either about their preferences or the likelihood that they will vote in the election. Its education level is a little lower25 percent have a bachelors degree or higher, compared to, nationally. The upper Midwest, upstate New York, and northern New England are home to a disproportionate share of high scoring counties, they said. Enforce the ones that you do have, he said. Yet unofficial vote counts now show Biden in the lead and with enough electoral votes to claim the presidency. He cares about the American people.. Right after we saw the results of the election and that Trump had lost, we were all like, what the hell?, said Tammy, a bartender at Wee Willys Sports Pub in Marblehead.